US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House in Washington last week. Photo / AP
Looking back on this year, the US midterm elections gave America and the world a welcome bit of good news: the candidates who threatened the integrity of US political institutions and the upcoming elections were defeated.
Whether you support Democrats or Republicans, last month’s vote for both houses of Congress and for state governments restored the level of predictability by overwhelmingly rejecting those who claim the US political system cannot be trusted.
The result is also a victory for US allies and partners who need to know that the next US administration will not suddenly abandon Washington’s international security and economic commitments.
Former President Donald Trump has never admitted that he lost the 2020 presidential election. Just a few days after the votes were counted last month, he announced his candidacy for the presidency in 2024.
Then, in early December, he used Truth Social, a social network of his own invention, to call for “the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those contained in the Constitution” to restore him as the legitimately elected president. Members of both parties have denounced this absurdity.
More importantly, voters have made it easier for members of the Republican Party to speak out against him more often by rejecting most of the key candidates for this year’s election who have publicly called for or questioned the victory of President Joe Biden in 2020.
That is especially true for state governors and law enforcement officials who manage all elections in the US system. In fact, in the 13 elections for governor, secretary of state, or attorney general held in the six states closest to the 2020 presidential election, “electoral denial” lost every vote.
In this case, the election was not a victory for the Democrat Biden, who lost his majority in the House, or for the Republicans, who failed to get the majority predicted in the Senate.
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On the contrary, it is a victory for members of both parties who believe that the laws governing US elections should be respected and the institutions that guarantee the absence of justice are sacrosanct.
Ironically, the result helped the Republican Party in one important way: It discredited Trump aides who managed to convince large numbers of eligible voters that voting was a waste of time because their votes would not be counted fairly.
It is also a victory for the governments of other countries that value the integrity and predictability of their relationship with Washington.
Even those who believe that US foreign policy is not a force for good in the world can take comfort from the assurance that the only country in the world that can project military force into every region of the world will not be a wildcard in international politics. and the global economy, with major policy reversals after each new election.
Trump remains a powerful figure in the Republican Party, and there is no guarantee that he won’t be able to win his party’s nomination for president in 2024, especially if a large number of anti-Trump Republican candidates split the anti-Trump vote between them.
But fewer Republicans have the courage to publicly mention Trump’s conspiracy theories and calls for an end to constitutional rule. More importantly, midterm results ensure there will be no cabal of political officials overseeing the upcoming election actively trying to overturn unfavorable results. It is the single most realistic threat to US democracy, with dire effects on US foreign policy, trade, and investment and global economic growth.
What do we now expect from the US government from January 3? Good old gridlock. Republicans will use their narrow majority in the House of Representatives to block Biden’s agenda and wage a political war on his presidency. Democrats will use their narrow majority in the Senate to prevent passage of Republican legislation and approve more left-leaning judges to federal positions to balance right-leaning judges appointed by Trump.
In short, US politics will remain predictably dysfunctional – but no longer in a way that threatens US and global stability.
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Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media and author of The Power of Crisis. His Twitter handle is @ianbremmer and he is on Facebook as Ian Bremmer.
